The January Profit Playbook
January has always been a challenging month for hospitality. After the intensity of December, diners tighten budgets, reduce leisure spending, and adopt new-year behaviour patterns such as Dry January and Veganuary.
This creates a predictable but painful drop in footfall and spend-per-head - especially for wet-led businesses.
But while January is tough, it’s not a month to simply 'survive.' With the right data insight and menu strategy, operators can win back revenue, attract health-conscious diners, and turn quieter weeks into opportunities.
This January Profit Playbook combines real EPOS trends, chef-led insight, and seasonal menu intelligence to help restaurants, pubs and hotels build a strategy that works - without discounting or devaluing the guest experience.
What the Data Tells Us About January
Aggregated, anonymised data from over 1,200 UK venues reveals clear behavioural shifts.
Spend-per-head drops sharply after December.
Across the UK, average transaction value falls by around 20% from December to January.
This is driven by:
- Lower footfall (fewer visits after Christmas)
- Guest moderation (less alcohol, fewer add-ons)
- Shift in energy from celebration to optimisation
This pattern is consistent year-on-year - and the drop in alcoholic drink sales is the biggest contributor.
One in three drinks sold in January is no/low
The data shows a notable rise in no/low alcohol consumption:
- Guests switch to alcohol-free beer, premium softs, and non-alcoholic cocktails
- Sober October trends repeat - often even more sharply - in January
- The combined effect: alcoholic drink revenue declines while No/Low grows
This means beverage spend doesn’t disappear - it transfers.
Guests who choose no/low still spend - just differently.
January diners often redirect spend into:
- Premium soft drinks
- Non-alcoholic cocktails
- Desserts
- Starters and sides
- Coffee and tea
Operators who offer appealing alternatives can recover much of the lost GP from alcoholic drinks.
Protecting Spend-Per-Head When Alcohol Drops
Here’s how operators can design menus and experiences that sustain GP when alcohol revenue softens.
1. Build a proper no/low menu - with intent
Token solutions don’t work.
Guests expect:
- 6–8 thoughtful No/Low options
- Drinks with depth, texture and garnish
- Premium softs with adult flavour profiles
- Seasonal ingredients and creativity
A strong No/Low menu matches the spirit of hospitality - crafted, considered and flavour-led.
2. Offer no/low pairings
Wine pairings are well-established - No/Low pairings should be too.
Example pairings:
- Kombucha with plant-led dishes
- Citrus-based mocktails with seasonal produce
- Spiced softs with roasted winter vegetables
January diners are receptive to guided choices, especially when aligned with health goals.
3. Use dessert to recover margin
Dessert performance is strong in January because diners still want indulgence — just not alcohol.
Operators can leverage high-performing vegan and plant-based desserts from TSC, such as:
Premium puddings deliver comfort, value and strong GP - exactly what January needs.
4. Equip FOH with the right language
Teams should be briefed to:
- Recommend no/low with confidence
- Understand flavour structure
- Offer pairings naturally
- Push add-ons in a guest-led, service-first way
Confidence sells.
Training turns a 'quiet month' into a commercial opportunity.
Veganuary: The Food Opportunity Operators Can’t Ignore
Lightspeed cannot extract vegan sales data - but TSC’s chef community provides rich insight.
Veganuary is not a niche trend; it’s a mainstream movement with strong adoption across operators and diners. January’s dual-focus on health and flavour makes it a natural moment for plant-based cooking to shine.
1. Keep vegan menus tight and seasonal
Three to five mains is enough.
A focused menu ensures:
- Consistency
- Reduced waste
- Clear identity
Operators can refer to the TSC Seasonal content hub for British winter produce inspiration: Which ingredients are in season this month? Read our monthly seasonal update to find out
Key January ingredients include:
- Celeriac
- Jerusalem artichokes
- Savoy cabbage
- Root vegetables
- Citrus
- Forced rhubarb
2. Inspire through verified TSC plant-based content
TSC offers real, high-quality plant-based recipes and chef features.
Holy Carrot - Plant-Based Leadership
Holy Carrot Recipes
Veganuary Hub
A broader content library for operators planning January menus: Veganuary – Vegan Chefs, Menus & Recipes
These links allow readers to explore proven, high-performing plant-led dishes already featured on TSC.
3. Indulgence wins over restriction
Successful Veganuary dishes are:
- Rich
- Comforting
- Generous in texture
- Built around umami
- Often fire-roasted or caramelised
Diners don’t want 'healthy alternatives' - they want 'delicious food that happens to be plant-based.'
Marketing: How Operators Drive Footfall in January
Revenue recovery isn’t just about menus - visibility and communication matter.
1. Publish January menus early
Between Christmas and New Year is when diners plan their first outings.
2. Update Google Business profile
It is one of the first touchpoints diners check. Keep:
- Hours
- Menus
- January offers
current and searchable.
3. Spotlight no/low and plant-based creativity
Short-form video of:
- Mocktail pours
- Seasonal vegan dishes
- Desserts performs strongly across social.
4. Promote a positive January message
A consistent call to action:
'Don’t stay home - support your favourite restaurants this January.'
This lands well with diners who want to treat themselves without overindulgence.
Conclusion: January Isn’t Dead - It Just Needs a Strategy
January is challenging, but not hopeless.
The data shows:
- Alcohol revenue drops
- Spend-per-head falls
- No/Low grows strongly
- Diners still want to go out - but differently
Operators who plan for these shifts can outperform the norm.
By building thoughtful no/low menus, crafting tight seasonal vegan dishes, training teams with purpose and promoting early - hospitality can turn January from a slump into a strategic win.
This article forms part of The Staff Canteen’s January Insights Series. All data and trend analysis are created with the support of Lightspeed. All data is anonymised and aggregated.
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