The January Profit Playbook

January has always been a challenging month for hospitality. After the intensity of December, diners tighten budgets, reduce leisure spending, and adopt new-year behaviour patterns such as Dry January and Veganuary.

This creates a predictable but painful drop in footfall and spend-per-head - especially for wet-led businesses.

But while January is tough, it’s not a month to simply 'survive.' With the right data insight and menu strategy, operators can win back revenue, attract health-conscious diners, and turn quieter weeks into opportunities.

This January Profit Playbook combines real EPOS trends, chef-led insight, and seasonal menu intelligence to help restaurants, pubs and hotels build a strategy that works - without discounting or devaluing the guest experience.

What the Data Tells Us About January

Aggregated, anonymised data from over 1,200 UK venues reveals clear behavioural shifts.

Spend-per-head drops sharply after December.

Across the UK, average transaction value falls by around 20% from December to January.
This is driven by:

• Lower footfall (fewer visits after Christmas)
• Guest moderation (less alcohol, fewer add-ons)
• Shift in energy from celebration to optimisation

This pattern is consistent year-on-year - and the drop in alcoholic drink sales is the biggest contributor.

One in three drinks sold in January is no/low

The data shows a notable rise in no/low alcohol consumption:

• Guests switch to alcohol-free beer, premium softs, and non-alcoholic cocktails
• Sober October trends repeat - often even more sharply - in January
• The combined effect: alcoholic drink revenue declines while No/Low grows

This means beverage spend doesn’t disappear - it transfers.

Guests who choose no/low still spend - just differently.

January diners often redirect spend into:

• Premium soft drinks
• Non-alcoholic cocktails
• Desserts
• Starters and sides
• Coffee and tea

Operators who offer appealing alternatives can recover much of the lost GP from alcoholic drinks.

Protecting Spend-Per-Head When Alcohol Drops

Here’s how operators can design menus and experiences that sustain GP when alcohol revenue softens.

1. Build a proper no/low menu - with intent

Token solutions don’t work.

Guests expect:

• 6–8 thoughtful No/Low options
• Drinks with depth, texture and garnish
• Premium softs with adult flavour profiles
• Seasonal ingredients and creativity

A strong No/Low menu matches the spirit of hospitality - crafted, considered and flavour-led.

2. Offer no/low pairings

Wine pairings are well-established - No/Low pairings should be too.

Example pairings:

• Kombucha with plant-led dishes
• Citrus-based mocktails with seasonal produce
• Spiced softs with roasted winter vegetables

January diners are receptive to guided choices, especially when aligned with health goals.

3. Use dessert to recover margin

Dessert performance is strong in January because diners still want indulgence — just not alcohol.

Operators can leverage high-performing vegan and plant-based desserts from TSC, such as:

• Vegan dark chocolate & hazelnut delice recipe with peanut & coconut sorbet

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• Lemon & Baileys Almande Meringue Pie recipe - Gaz Oakley, Avant Garde Vegan

Premium puddings deliver comfort, value and strong GP - exactly what January needs.

4. Equip FOH with the right language

Teams should be briefed to:

• Recommend no/low with confidence
• Understand flavour structure
• Offer pairings naturally
• Push add-ons in a guest-led, service-first way

Confidence sells.
Training turns a 'quiet month' into a commercial opportunity.

Veganuary: The Food Opportunity Operators Can’t Ignore

Lightspeed cannot extract vegan sales data - but TSC’s chef community provides rich insight.

Veganuary is not a niche trend; it’s a mainstream movement with strong adoption across operators and diners. January’s dual-focus on health and flavour makes it a natural moment for plant-based cooking to shine.

1. Keep vegan menus tight and seasonal

Three to five mains is enough.

A focused menu ensures:

• Consistency
• Reduced waste
• Clear identity

Operators can refer to the TSC Seasonal content hub for British winter produce inspiration: Which ingredients are in season this month? Read our monthly seasonal update to find out

Key January ingredients include:

• Celeriac
• Jerusalem artichokes
• Savoy cabbage
• Root vegetables
• Citrus
• Forced rhubarb

2. Inspire through verified TSC plant-based content

TSC offers real, high-quality plant-based recipes and chef features.

Holy Carrot - Plant-Based Leadership

• Daniel Watkins, executive chef, Holy Carrot

Holy Carrot Recipes

Veganuary Hub

A broader content library for operators planning January menus: Veganuary – Vegan Chefs, Menus & Recipes

These links allow readers to explore proven, high-performing plant-led dishes already featured on TSC.

3. Indulgence wins over restriction

Successful Veganuary dishes are:

• Rich
• Comforting
• Generous in texture
• Built around umami
• Often fire-roasted or caramelised

Diners don’t want 'healthy alternatives' - they want 'delicious food that happens to be plant-based.'

Marketing: How Operators Drive Footfall in January

Revenue recovery isn’t just about menus - visibility and communication matter.

1. Publish January menus early

Between Christmas and New Year is when diners plan their first outings.

2. Update Google Business profile

It is one of the first touchpoints diners check. Keep:

• Hours
• Menus
• January offers
  current and searchable.

3. Spotlight no/low and plant-based creativity

Short-form video of:

• Mocktail pours
• Seasonal vegan dishes
• Desserts performs strongly across social.

4. Promote a positive January message

A consistent call to action:

'Don’t stay home - support your favourite restaurants this January.'

This lands well with diners who want to treat themselves without overindulgence.

Conclusion: January Isn’t Dead - It Just Needs a Strategy

January is challenging, but not hopeless.

The data shows:

• Alcohol revenue drops
• Spend-per-head falls
• No/Low grows strongly
• Diners still want to go out - but differently

Operators who plan for these shifts can outperform the norm.

By building thoughtful no/low menus, crafting tight seasonal vegan dishes, training teams with purpose and promoting early - hospitality can turn January from a slump into a strategic win.

This article forms part of The Staff Canteen’s January Insights Series. All data and trend analysis are created with the support of Lightspeed. All data is anonymised and aggregated.