January diner behaviour - what the diners really say

Every operator knows January is quieter. But 'quiet' isn’t the full picture - and it isn’t random either.

Across the UK, January reveals the same behaviour patterns year after year, giving operators a reliable foundation to plan menus, staffing and revenue strategy.

Lightspeed’s anonymised UK dataset, combined with The Staff Canteen’s chef community insight, shows that January behaviour follows a clear rhythm:

• Footfall drops immediately after New Year
• Spend-per-head falls sharply
• Alcohol sales decline
• No/Low orders rise
• Plant-based dishes gain attention
• And then, from week three - recovery begins

Understanding this pattern means operators can act early, set realistic expectations and create menus and experiences that align with what guests actually want in January.

January isn’t a mystery. It’s a rhythm - and the data shows exactly how to work with it.

What Happens to Footfall in January?

Footfall drops across the board in the first two weeks of January. This happens every single year, and the Lightspeed data reinforces how sharp and predictable the shift is.

• The first week of January is the lowest for total visits
• Week two remains subdued
• Week three begins the gradual climb
• Pay weekend (last weekend of the month) triggers the first major bounce

This is driven by:

• Financial caution after Christmas
• New year “reset” behaviour
• Social fatigue
• A shift toward routine and discipline

But what’s important is this:

Footfall doesn’t collapse - it recalibrates.

Guests still go out, just less often and with a slightly different mindset.

Spend-Per-Head Falls - and Why

Spend-per-head drops around 20% from December to January, based on average transaction value across UK venues in the Lightspeed dataset.

This is consistent, predictable and largely explained by two drivers:

1. Guests order fewer alcoholic drinks

Alcohol is one of the biggest GP contributors. When people cut back - either through Dry January or moderation - the bill naturally shrinks.

2. Guests reduce discretionary extras

In the first half of January, diners tend to skip:

• Starters
• Sides
• Desserts
• Aperitifs

This softens both spend-per-head and GP.

But this pattern doesn’t last all month. By the third week:

• Alcohol consumption begins to rise slightly
• People return to normal ordering behaviour
• Desserts and add-ons pick up
• Average transaction value increases
• The mood shifts from “reset” to “treat yourself again”

Operators who plan their January menu cycles around this pattern win commercially.

No/Low Alcohol Changes the Guest Profile

January guests don’t become non-drinkers.
They become different drinkers.

The Lightspeed dataset shows that:

• No/Low drink share rises sharply
• Alcoholic drink sales fall noticeably

• Drink orders overall remain stable

That means the number of drinks ordered stays healthy - the mix simply changes.

Operators can support this behaviour by refreshing their No/Low offering (mocktails, premium softs, kombucha, AF beer).

Strategically, January is not a month to shrink the drinks menu - it’s a month to diversify it.

How January Diners Choose What to Eat

While Lightspeed can’t extract vegan dish-level data, TSC’s editorial insight and chef community experience give a clear picture.

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January diners lean toward:

• Plant-forward dishes
• Seasonal vegetables
• Comfort food with clean flavours
• Rich, indulgent vegan options
• Lighter mains with strong texture

This is one reason Veganuary performs strongly — not just culturally, but commercially. Guests want food that aligns with their healthier behaviour patterns but still feels generous.

Useful internal links to support this section:

• Veganuary hub: Veganuary – Vegan Chefs, Menus & Recipes
• Vegan recipe archive.

Holy Carrot’s plant-based fine dining dishes are ideal examples of what January guests are looking for:

• Mushroom fine-dining recipe: 

• Pumpkin dish: 

The trend is clear: January diners don’t want restrictive food — they want plant-led comfort.

Daypart Behaviour - Even Without Hard Data, Patterns Are Clear

Although the Lightspeed data doesn’t provide daypart analysis, operational patterns across the industry are consistent:

Lunch stabilises earlier than dinner

Guests view lunch as lower risk, lower spend, and easier to justify.

Early evening increases slightly

5–7pm bookings work well for guests who prefer structure, routine, and moderation.

Brunch remains resilient

Especially plant-forward brunch menus paired with No/Low cocktails — guests see brunch as a “soft” occasion that fits January behaviour.

These patterns reinforce that January is not defined by no demand, but by different demand.

When January Starts to Improve - The Inflection Point

The recovery isn’t random - it has a clear pattern.

Week 3

• Footfall rises
• No/Low orders plateau
• Alcohol orders begin to return
• Guests add starters and desserts again
• Average transaction value increases

Pay Weekend (Final Weekend of the Month)

This is the first true “busy” period of the year.
It should be treated as a mini-reset moment, with:

• A refreshed menu
• No/Low specials
• A strong dessert lineup
• Seasonal vegetable-led mains

Operators seeking seasonal inspiration can explore the TSC Seasonal hub.

The key message: January doesn’t get better by chance - it gets better on schedule.

How Operators Can Respond to January Behaviour

Below are five actionable strategies aligned to real diner behaviour patterns.

1. Post January Menus Early and Often

Guests plan ahead more in January than any other month.
Visibility drives bookings.

2. Build a January “Discovery Menu”

A small-plate or tasting format paired with No/Low drinks matches guests’ appetite for:

• Trying new things
• Controlled spend
• Strong flavour without heaviness

3. Anchor Menus in Seasonal Produce

January’s best produce delivers flavour and GP:

• Celeriac
• Jerusalem artichokes
• Citrus
• Savoy cabbage
• Root vegetables

Explore seasonal content: 

4. Train FOH for Low-Pressure Suggestive Selling

Guests respond well to:

• Confident guidance
• “Healthier” descriptions
• Premium soft pairings
• Dessert suggestions in the second half of the month

5. Use the “Don’t Stay Home” Message

This tone resonates because diners want experiences — they’re simply seeking the right ones.

A soft, supportive call to action works:

“Don’t stay home — support your favourite restaurants this January.”

Conclusion — You Can’t Change Behaviour, But You Can Predict It

January diners behave differently — but not unpredictably.

The data shows:

• Predictable footfall patterns
• Clear spend-per-head declines
• A significant shift into No/Low categories
• Renewed interest in plant-led cooking
• A mid-month inflection point every year

Operators who understand this rhythm can build menus, drinks lists and service strategies that work with the behaviour instead of fighting it.

January isn’t a blackout month — it’s a behavioural pattern.
And once you understand the pattern, you can plan for success.

This article forms part of The Staff Canteen’s January Insights Series. All data and trend analysis are created with the support of Lightspeed. All data is anonymised and aggregated.