Taken from Aviko’s 2020 Food Trends Report, we take a closer look at the impact of consumer confidence, Brexit and household expenditure on the UK Food and Beverage Industry in 2020.
• Is consumer confidence affecting people's dining out behaviour?
You bet it is, not just that, practically every industry out there, aside from the people who can afford to buy islands. I think we can all agree that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the many elections we've faced over the past few years have left the general public in a state of limbo.
According to GFK – the fourth largest market research organisation in the world – consumer confidence has flatlined amid uncertainty over domestic policy, namely the B word, yes Brexit.
• What are the challenges of Brexit for the Food and Beverage Industry?
Let's look at the economy as a whole first. PWC has forecast a modest 1.3% economic growth in the UK in 2020 which is down when compared to the long-term trend rate of around 2%. However, the consultancy company has based these projections on the assumption that a Brexit deal is eventually agreed that will lead to an orderly exit from the EU. It says risks are weighted to the downside due to the possibility of a more disorderly Brexit.
• What would no-deal mean?
A no-deal Brexit could have a significant impact upon restaurants. The Government's Yellowhammer Report makes it clear that supply chains, particularly of fresh fruit and vegetables, could be severely disrupted.
• Will this affect restaurant staff shortages?
A survey by Propel and Fourth Analytics revealed that 43% of workers in the UK restaurant, quick-service restaurant (QSR), hotel and pub sectors are foreign nationals. The numbers spike dramatically for restaurants, in which 57% of workers originate from outside of the UK. They fill 51% in front-of-house roles and 71% of kitchen and back-of-house roles.
An end to freedom of movement is expected to hit the hospitality industry particularly hard.
• The Good News:
Howard Archer, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY Item Club believes, "…personal finances and a willingness to spend generally held up much better than views of the economy."
With no more elections for the foreseeable future, consumer confidence will improve as a large grey area is removed from the public's psyche. Plus, if the Government doesn't renege on their promises to reduce business rates and provide tax breaks, the outlook could look a lot rosier for the Food and Beverage Industry.
• Get the full 2020 Food Trends Report
Aviko's 2020 Food Trends report covers flavours, consumer confidence, Brexit, technology and marketing. Get your copy by visiting www.aviko.co.uk
