The number of people eating out peaked in 2017 at 11.35 billion visits according to the NPD Group. Spend has grown, but that's mainly to do with inflation and increased costs. However, NPD also predicts that off-premise dining – delivery, takeaway, grab and go, and drive through – will increase by 4 percent by the end of 2020 from 2018.
That's not all! Consumer spend is forecast to grow substantially more, by 10% to £27.87 billion by next year. Those are big numbers, especially when you look at off premise visits expected to rise to 7.21 billion by the end of 2020, that's well over 50% of out-of-home dining visits.
You could say off-premise is having a bit of a moment. There are several factors that have coincided to change the way people live, especially those lucky enough to have youth on their side. The digital age has brought people, entertainment, food, leisure and shopping close together.
The biggest change has been the availability and wealth of choice for consumers through delivery aggregators such as JustEat, Deliveroo and Uber Eats. Delivery is no longer restricted to fast-food and pizzas, with restaurants taking advantage of the huge reach of these tech-delivery giants. By the end of 2020, NPD Group predicts that UK spend on delivery will jump a staggering 22% to £5.8 billion per annum.
It's not just delivery that's increasing either, there are now close to 1,000 drive-through sites in the UK with many larger chains servicing the demand from grab-and-go customers.
Do people not want to leave the house any longer? Well, not quite so dramatic, but people have less of a need to leave the house. The rise of home entertainment services like Netflix combined with a massive choice of food for delivery means that a trip to a restaurant and the cinema can all be done from the comfort of your own home.
With the increase in high-speed internet, entertainment technology and the delivery boom showing no signs of abating, off-premise dining is likely to evolve and grow.
The restaurant industry will continue to be what consumers want it to be. If people are wanting to spend more time at home then businesses will fill this need, and of course, are already doing so.
The evolution of off-premise dining is already evident. Delivery companies are starting loyalty programmes to keep their customers coming back and away from the competition. Virtual Restaurants or Dark Kitchens are popping up frequently (there is one a few doors from our office); giving restaurants the opportunity to increase their demographic without the overheads associated with running a full-service restaurant.
Expect new entrants to the delivery market who look to provide foodservice outlets with a service that doesn't eat so much of their profit. Perhaps another large tech-giant will offer a different solution, or maybe a start-up who spots an opportunity to give consumers what they want at a lower cost to restaurants.
We don't know for sure, but one thing is certain, it's going to be interesting to see how off-premise dining evolves over the coming years.
For more information about restaurant marketing, technology available to foodservice establishments and a host of other useful information about the latest food trends, make sure you download the Aviko 2020 Food Trends Report by visiting www.aviko.co.uk.
