January hospitality intelligence 2026 - what the data tells us

In the final part of our series, the staff canteen and lightspeed offer some solutions of how to counteract the challenges january brings.

January is the toughest month in hospitality. Footfall tightens, spend-per-head drops after Christmas and guests make new-year commitments around drinking and diet.

But none of this is unpredictable - the same patterns repeat every year, and operators who understand them can protect revenue without discounting or overhauling their menu.

Using anonymised, aggregated data from Lightspeed, alongside chef and operator-led intelligence from The Staff Canteen community, this guide distils what actually changes in January and what actions operators can take now to drive bookings, spend and engagement.

This is your January Operator Toolkit - practical, proven and built for the realities of running a busy kitchen or dining room in the hardest trading month.

No/Low Alcohol Is Now a Core Part of January Revenue

January drinking behaviour has shifted. Guests still order beverages - but they shift into no/low categories faster and more consistently than at any other time of year.

• Read more: The no/low big five - what’s actually selling in January?

Lightspeed’s drink data shows:

• No/low share increases sharply in January
• Alcoholic sales dip as expected, but transactions remain stable
• Premium softs, citrus-led drinks and AF beers lead demand
• Non-alcoholic cocktails maintain strong price points

For operators, this means one thing:

Drinks revenue in January isn’t disappearing — it’s changing composition.

A strong no/low menu can hold GP even in a reset month.

What to put on the menu

• 2 alcohol-free beers
• 2–3 premium softs (botanical, citrus, spiced)
• 2–3 non-alcoholic cocktails
• 1 kombucha or tea-led serve

Why this matters

If you only offer a token AF beer and a lemonade, you lose GP.

If you create a crafted no/low list, you protect spend-per-head.

• Read more: January diner behaviour - what the diners really say

January’s Plant-Based Spike - What Operators Need to Know

While Lightspeed cannot break down vegan dishes by SKU, behaviour across the industry is clear: plant-based dishes gain traction in January.

This aligns with:

• Veganuary’s growing mainstream adoption
• Guests seeking “plant-forward comfort food”
• Seasonal produce naturally lending itself to plant-based cooking

The strongest Veganuary menus are focused, flavour-led and indulgent. Not restrictive - indulgent.

• Read more: Veganuary menu intelligence — what operators need to know

TSC vegan inspiration

Verified internal links include:

• Veganuary Hub
  👉 Veganuary – Vegan Chefs, Menus & Recipes

Key January produce

(Use the TSC Seasonal hub for full breakdown)
👉 Which ingredients are in season this month? Read our monthly seasonal update to find out

Highlights include:

• Celeriac
• Jerusalem artichoke
• Mushrooms

• Leeks
• Root vegetables
• Forced rhubarb
• Citrus

These ingredients are ideal for creating warming, indulgent dishes at excellent GP.

Combined Transaction Trends - What January Guests Actually Spend

Lightspeed’s transaction data across multiple years shows:

• Spend-per-head drops around 20% from December
• The lowest point is the first two weeks
• By week three, spend begins to recover
• Pay weekend triggers a noticeable uplift in both food and drink revenue

The decline isn’t dramatic - it’s predictable.

And crucially:

Guests who switch to no/low over alcohol don’t stop spending — they redistribute it.

They compensate through:

• Desserts
• Premium softs
• Plant-based mains
• Add-ons
• Coffee and tea

Operators can recover spend-per-head by offering dishes and drinks that feel generous and seasonal.

Menu Strategy - What Chefs Should Be Putting on in January

January menus work best when they combine:

1. Comfort

Warm, slow-cooked, roasted flavours.

2. Seasonal technique

Charring, caramelisation, ferment, smoke.

3. Produce-focused GP wins

Celeriac, leeks, brassicas, mushrooms, potatoes.

4. Clear, intentional plates

3–5 mains, not sprawling menus.

Useful TSC recipe links for inspiration:

• Roast cod with vin blanc sauce, wild mushroom, spinach and cauliflower
• Rhubarb and Custard
• Sous vide venison loin and venison ragu

These dishes reflect what January diners respond to: warmth, depth, generosity and comfort.

Operational Opportunities – How to Drive Footfall

Menu strategy is one part of the puzzle - operators also need visibility and narrative.

1. Promote early

Publish your January and Veganuary menus between December 28 - January 5.
This window captures guests planning their 'return to normality.'

2. Use social video weekly

Guests respond to:

• Mocktail pours
• Fire cooking
• Vegan plating
• Winter desserts

January is a month where content outperforms footfall, so visibility matters.

3. Theme nights drive booking

Small plates + no/low pairing nights
Veganuary tasting menus
Weekend roast “flight” menus
Brunch with AF cocktails

4. Update Google Business Profile

One of the first places January diners check for opening hours.

5. Lead with a positive message

“Don’t stay home - support your local restaurants this January.”

This lands perfectly with diners looking for gentle, feel-good experiences.

Conclusion - January Isn’t Slow. It Just Needs Structure.

The data shows that January diners change behaviour - but not in ways that prevent revenue. no/low drink sales rise. Plant-based cooking becomes more attractive. Spend-per-head drops early but recovers by week three.

Operators who plan around these patterns outperform the rest of the market.

With great seasonal produce, intentional menus, a crafted no/low list and smart visibility, January becomes a month of opportunity - not survival.

Data and trends in this article were supported by anonymised, aggregated EPOS data provided by Lightspeed.